Predictions; Anime and manga for 2009

And this time we have our Anime/Manga predictions for 2009

Steve:

  • Online is the way to go and the trend will continue – its fast, it keeps things fresh, and its cheap.  As anime fandom blossomed with the internet, this will work fine for the fans, though it may slow some growth in the general population.  However I think as economies are in maintanance mode "stability" and "decrease cost" is the big thing.
  • Subs will increasingly dominate.  Full dubs will become more specialty items.
  • Japanese media companies and their well-oiled processes will need less and less support in other countries to publish, make money, etc.  I expect dub/translation companies to take a hit and end up more in "contractor" roles.  Partners will become competitors.
  • American companies will not be sure what to do with anime distribution with the changes.
  • Anime fandom will stay a heavily online-linked phenomena.  This gives it solidity and presence, and more and more marketers will beging to focus on them.
  • Manga will maintain popularity, but as its driven by a few leaders, inevitably level off.  I expect the 'style' is here to stay.  Comic companies may take an interest in the "phonebook" model.
  • The interest in anime tie-ins hinges in a large part on how the Dragonball movie does.  I'm expecting an entertaining if uninspired film, but if its a big failure I expect more caution.  However Hollywood won't loose complete interest in anime and manga as they represent a rich source of developable IP, and some titles would work well in the right media (I could see, say, a live action Fruits Basket done as a miniseries).

For Geeky Job Seekers:  Voice acting is going to decline for anime, translation will go up, and the need to know Japanese will be a useful as a business skill.  Look at American branches of Japanese companies for possible job work, bone up on your languages and international business/economic knowledge.  Consider leveraging any graphical skills in your home country as the continued interest in Anime and Manga may lead to opportunities.  Unfortunately I don't see any increase of opportunities until 2010.

Bonnie:

  • The big change in this arena is most definitely going to be in distribution. When Viz announced that it would offer fully subbed episodes of Naruto on its own site, it was the beginning of the end of the fansub culture as we know it, at least for big-big series.
  • Viz will probably follow Naruto up with other popular titles going straight from the Japanese airwaves to being uploaded on its own site – Bleach and One Piece are the obvious candidates here. Look for other anime companies to do the same with other big-ticket releases.
  • In the coming year, look for online services Joost and Crunchyroll to play an increasingly bigger role in distribution of subtitled anime released by "name" companies like Viz, ADV and Funimation.
  • At least one popular series that has completed its run on Japanese TV will be released online before going to DVD – I suspect it's going to be D. Gray-Man, as Funimation licensed the title several months ago, and there's been no mention at all of dub casting or a DVD release date.
  • The release of the latest Gundam on the Sci-Fi Channel notwithstanding, the traditional distribution of dubbed anime on television will be phased out (indeed, it seems to be phasing out already). Kiddie dubs will remain, but since these are off most fans' radar (with the exception of cult shows like Pokemon and Yu Gi Oh), they won't be much of a factor in the fandom.
  • Several years down the line, I can definitely see anime going straight from Japanese television to American computers, subbed and released by professional companies, within days. Sub-dub DVDs will become "boutique" items reserved for the most A-list titles, and traditional fan-created fansubs will only be done for the most off-the-wall stuff  that "traditional" anime companies would have no interest in.  (Which may lead to an interesting split in the fandom, with some people being fans only of the oddball, fansubbed stuff and saying they're too cool for "legitimate" anime!)
  • So the future definitely looks very, very bright for people who want to get into localization – translating and script writing. It may be less so for those who want to be anime voice actors, but there is still plenty of video game and American animation work out there, so it's still a very legitimate career choice.