Predictions: Technology in 2009

Our Predictions series continues in this slow news holiday week.  Today after a Christmas Break, we'll tackle our predictions for technology.

Steve

  • Consumer electronics will remain big, but I expect "multi-functional" devices to dominate over others – people will be  happier to spend $2000 on a loaded computer than a plasma screen.  Fancy one-use devices will decline in popularity.
  • Despite the consumer electronics market, companies in general will still have tough times or at least prepare for them.  2009 will be the buckle-down moment.
  • Consumer electronics will remain ubiquitous in the market and be almost everywhere, leaving dominance as a "consumer electronics central" to Best Buy.  Best Buy will play it very, very safe.
  • Development of new PC/laptop systems will lag behind due to the fact people will be less interested in the cool new thing.  Lighter cheaper systems will do well.
  • Social networking will continue to remain huge.  Look for increasing interest in leveraging these tools, especially with a bad economy.
  • Twitter will try making money, but I actually think they won't.  Their competition is huge.  I expect them to get bought out this year and turn more into a technology provider.
  • Online gaming remains big, but a lot of companies have locked up territory – enough for some to start having showdowns.  When the big boys realize how far they're going, expect an outburst of interest in online gaming, even more than now (such as Amazon's interest).
  • We're going to see layoffs in the tech sector still.  In late 2009/2010 when companies are re-hiring they're going to be even leaner – which is tough as they run very lean now.  In the end of 2009 or early 2010 expect several companies to make a hiring run as they realize they're understaffed.
  • Despite decreases in VC it's going to keep flowing.
  • The tech job market is going to vary vastly by region, by state, by city, and in some cases even by suburb or neighborhood – as noted in my experiences in Silcion Valley, you could have a business called FlushingMoneyDownTheToilet.com and you'd get VC if you were in the right area.  Keep this in mind.
  • There will be more job cuts in Q1 of 2009, and maybe some in Q2.  This is a strange time and no one is quite sure what's going on.

For Geeky Job Seekers: Even in a lousy economy, tech is the place to be – just be careful of where you are, follow the news, and keep an eye out.  There's no guarantee any company is table, but being in technology (and being able to transfer the skills) is an advantage.  Keep aware of what companies are doing, keep your skills up, and evaluate your location – and other locations – for career viability.  Don't get complacent.

Bonnie:

  • The booming area here is the mobile phone. The iPhone opened up new possibilities for handhelds, which suddenly went from communications devices to mini-lifestyle machines. Apple's device and its imitators, like the Blackberry Storm, are the hot tickets for developers right now, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. (Would not at all be surprised to see one of the video game companies announce a phone version of their handhelds as well – it seems a natural course of action for the troubled PSP.)
  • In the online arena, look for Yahoo to announce a major merger at some point during the year, after its ad deal with Google fell apart (and, indeed, came a hair's breadth from antitrust action). A natural candidate is the equally troubled AOL, whose fortunes also seem to rest on instant messaging nowadays.
  • Speaking of Google, all eyes will be on the fate of its new Chrome browser. My gut feeling is it'll give Firefox a run for its money, especially when people download it out of sheer curiosity, but won't overtake the Mozilla-based Web surfer. (People may end up preferring both Chrome and Firefox to Internet Explorer, though, as Microsoft's built-in browser seems plagued with security woes).
  • Social networking will continue to grow and expand – look for a time in the near future where professionals will put their LinkedIn information on their business cards. Twitter will more than likely be bought out by one of the major players in that arena – Facebook, which tried to acquire them once, is definitely the logical candidate.
  • Meanwhile, as the economy continues to be down in the dumps, look for the computer companies to offer more low-priced computing solutions – Apple may end up bringing out that much-rumored inexpensive laptop after all, and companies like Dell will do brisk business in "minis" and scaled-down machines.
  • And finally, look for Linux, whose fortunes have been on the rise as of late, to make more and more inroads into mainstream computing. In a year or so, they may have made it to the status as the third OS of course among professionals, if not among the public at large.