Our predictions conclude with our look at what we expect in Video Games in 2009.
Steve:
- Sony will have to make a make-or-break move to revive (or even restart) the Ps3, but I can't see how that can be done. Though they say the rumor of a PSP2 is bogus, I wonder if it may be worth it. Frankly I think the latter is possible – the PSP has some good technology going for it, and a temporary refocus on handhelds could mean taking a tact like Nintendo did with the DS. Also as the PS3 does make a nice media system, it could take advantage of online gaming with good browser and a MUCH better menu.
- Microsoft will keep trying to expand the X-Box's appeal with limited success (they've got a lot going for it right now). I expect some minor rebranding to take advantage of Sony's position.
- Nintendo will keep doing fine. The Wii will continue to be the secondary box for many, but will do well. However the 2009 releases don't contain a lot of thrilling titles, so I expect they may see a Wii slump in 2009 about mid-year. The DS will continue to be the de facto handheld.
- Midway will be gone. Whoever gets them will immediately set around to leveraging their IP as much as possible except Mortal Kombat – which just had a release.
- Social Networking will be a big part of gaming and continue to grow.
- We'll continue to have a lot of sequelitis as people look for guaranteed sales. This will not always pay off.
- There will be a growing emphasis on multimedia IP development – people will be looking for the "holy grail" of multimedia. This is where you'll see your non-sequelitis.
- Gaming will do comparatively well versus other entertainment due to its payback-per dollar. When I can spend 100 hours playing Persona 4 for $50 and my wife can play it as well, thats a better return then paying $10 for a movie per person.
- The iPhone will be considered a gaming platform for many and we'll see increased game development for it – it is after all a good market. It won't dominate, but it will keep Nintendo and Sony on their toes. Expect Nintendo to be making plans (already) to outmaneuver the iPhone.
- The impact of 2008-2009 will extend beyond these timeframes due to the term of development – I fully expect complaints in 2010 about a downturn in titles/quality/new IP/etc.
For Geeky Job Seekers: The gaming market is decent overall but with lots of unpredictable and erratic areas – especially if you're not Nintendo. I expect the gaming industry to do better than many others, and its probably worth staying in it to ride out the economic downturn, but usual cautions apply. If you're concerned, consider a move to either a more reliable company, or a smaller company with a good cash influx.
Bonnie:
- The word in this arena is casual gaming. Nintendo reached out and grabbed entire audiences who didn't know Sonic the Hedgehog from Sonic the fast-food joint, and now innumerable online companies are following suit – our links of the day, from time to time, note ridiculous sums of money being given to casual gaming startups.
- Look for more companies getting into the online casual gaming arena, to the point where the field may become *too* overcrowded and people will start pushing each other out of business. If you want to get into this field, it's a smart bet, but just make sure you have something new and fresh to offer!
- Also up and coming are downloadable games created just for consoles. Nintendo's WiiWare, and Xbox 360's Xbox Live are both booming areas, and a good place for game developers to start if they want to break into the big time. Look for both of them to substantially increase their product offerings in the year ahead.
- The music games field is most definitely not going anywhere in the foreseeable future, and you may see other competitors entering the arena to challenge Activision/Blizzard's Guitar Hero and Harmonix's Rock Band. (Nintendo itself has taken them on with Wii Music, but it remains to be seen how successful it'll be).
- And then, there's the strange, sad case of Sony, whose fortunes seem to be getting dimmer and dimmer. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we're going to get an announcement sometime during the year that they're either going to go back on their word not to scale back prices on the PS3 or they're going to stop distributing the machine altogether, refocus on the Playstation 2 and get to work on a more affordable, more broad-appeal Playstation 4.