Fan To Pro - The Blog of Professional Geekery

Links of the Day 1/31/2009

Economics/Freakonomics/Geekonomics

• Recession looks like it'll last most of 2009 - A story I'm hearing over and over is end of Q2-or-into-Q4 for the recession in the US, varying a bit by region.
• The future requires investment and that may mean research - And if you're any kind of geek, you can see that more spending on research means more jobs for scientists, engineers, and such.  This also shows just how much further the US has - and can - go to improve its use of technology.
• Some thoughts from the 'Long Tail' author on free, fremium, and more - With analysis.

Publishing.

• Layoffs.  LA Times.  The usual.  Sigh.

Technology

• Human error temporarily causes Google to list every site as dangerous.  Seriously bad publicity, but they owned right up to it.  As a side thought - if you're in high tech business, just how much work is there in PR?

And in the what the heck category, Neon Genesis Evangelion inspired  . . . clothes.  As they are one-pieces, I could make more jokes, but i won't.

Links of the Day, 1/30/2009

Video Games

Casual gaming continues to be hot and getting hotter: Flying Lab software has launched a new casual division, called, unsurpringly, Flying Lab Casual. The company's stated ambition is to develop casual MMO gaming software "from the ground up." Looks like everyone seems to be getting on the MMO bandwagon - Electronic Arts, which has looked to revive its flagging fortunes in a variety of ways (including coming up with literary-based games like Dante's Inferno, is now reviving its Need for Speed franchise as a free MMO (Meanwhile, the troubled company may be cutting people from its Canada division) .   

Nintendo, despite its lowered earnings forcast, is thinking big when it comes to the DS, gunning for sales of 152 million across the U.S., Europe and Japan. They also say the Wii has room for expansion despite its already massive success, and they foresee it eclipsing the success of the Playstation 2. Needless to say, software for Nintendo-based devices is a very safe bet to develop, especially since third-party software for both Wii and DS is increasing in sales. 

Peter Brown, board chairman of the struggling Midway, has resigned, and CEO Matt Booty will fill his position. Meanwhile, Ensemble Studios, which suffered the fate Midway is trying to avoid when Microsoft closed it, may rise from the ashes after all: Cofounder Bruce Shelley has hinted that two new companies could be formed from the ruins of the old one.  

Rumor has it that a $19.99 "premium games" store is coming to iTunes. Don't hope to get your indie game on there, though - it will be restricted to games from major companies, like Sega and Electronic Arts. 

Technology

Yahoo may be turning its fortunes around, but they won't be entering the phone wars: Apparently, a Yahoophone was in development, but it got canned. Given that Yahoo has rebuilding work to do, and the cell phone market is a major battlefield right now (Apple appears to be holding off rival Palm for now with a multitouch phone patent, but experts say it may not stay exclusive for long) , it's probably better that they decided to focus elsewhere. (Interestingly, the canning seems to have come on the advice of the new CEO's college-age daughter). Meanwhile, Dell is entering the phone fray with prototypes of Windows and Adroid-based phones. 

Details are emerging about Google's proposed GDrive, an online storage solution that will allow users to access files anywhere from any Internet-enabled device, be it a desktop, laptop or phone - a boon for people who conduct business on the road and don't feel like dragging around portable hard drives. Meanwhile, Jonathon Rochelle, product manager of Google Docs, said the application will get more integrated and social-oreinted in the future. 

Is the real threat to Windows in the future not Linux, but the as-now-unknown Citrix Project? A look at something programmers may have to be familiar with in the future.  

Economics/Geekonomics

The U.S. economy contracted 3.8 percent in the final three months of the year, the biggest such shrinkage in 27 years. Furthermore, the gross domestic product was down 3.8% in the fourth quarter, and personal finance site Mint says its average user has cut expenses by $400 a month starting last summer.  Another big "we're not out of the woods yet, folks." 

Publishing

Let's get the bad news out of the way first: The Baltimore Examiner, a free paper, will close up shop in mid-February, with all 90 employees losing their jobs.Gannett's dividends may be history because of its recent losses and the Dallas Morning News and its sister papers are laying off 500 people.  

However, there are increasing signs that publishing has a future, and that future is in cyberspace. Unique visitors at newspaper sites were up more than 12 percent last year, and Web-only newsrooms will be competing for the Pulitzer for the first time. So there's still hope, as long as you know your HTML.

- Bonnie  

Links of the Day, 1/29/2009

Video Games

Nintendo has cut its earnings expectations for the year by a third, citing the strong yen - some reports indicate this made their profits drop 46 percent in the holiday quarter. This is despite the fact that their sales rose 17 percent in the last nine months of 2009. The DSi, by the way, is a solid smash in Japan, with 1.66 million units sold to date. Meanwhile, their rivals Sony saw a year-over-year sales decrease of 32 percent due to the strong yen and a decline in their hardware sales.  

Are profits in video games shifting from the West to the East? A study from market researcher DFC Intelligence indicates that the faster adoption of broadband technology in Japan and Korea has meant increased profits from new online business models that keep the money coming in long after a customer buys a game at the store. 

Udon Entertainment is hosting an art contest commemorating the 15th anniversary of Capcom's Darkstalkers. Pro,semi-pro and aspiring artists are all welcome to participate. 

Technology

More layoffs coming at a big name in the cyber world: A memo from AOL CEO Randy Falco indicates that the company will reduce its staff by 10 percent over "the next several quarters" and will skip merit raises for 2009. 

YouTube continues to be a very good bet as a career option, as it only continues to expand. The company is on the verge of a deal with the William Morris agency for an as-yet-unnamed joint venture. Given that the agency represents names such as Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, and J.J. Abrams, this could be something very big indeed.

Economics/Geekonomics

More sobering signs that economic recovery is a way off yet: New home sales hit a record low in December and continued unemployment claims are at a record high. 

Job Market

The Sacramento Bee recently offered a unique service to help its unemployed readers find jobs: video resumes. Such a tool is definitely worth considering in your job search, especially if you're pursuing a career in arts or video editing where you can show off samples of your work in between discussing your skills.  

Publishing

Another magazine from a major publisher bites the dust: Conde Nast has shuttered Domino, as well as its accompaying Web site. Meanwhile, the venerable Readers Digest has cut 280 jobs and is forcing unpaid furloughs on employees through 2010, the Washington Post is confirmed to be dropping its standalone book review section and Times Publishing has put Congressional Quarterly up for sale.  

- Bonnie

Budgeting: A quick trick

One of the things I hear when I discuss jobs and careers with people is how people can be better at budgeting.  I won't argue with that at all - there's always room for improvement.

If you want to learn good budgeting, you can grab a basic "For Dummies" guide and get all you need for the basics.  However, one of the problems of budgeting is understanding context - why something matters.  So one of my tricks is to imagine, when I pay for something or estimate the cost for something, what else it could buy and vice versa - or how much you'd save if you could eliminate that expense.  See how costs vary around the country.  Play around with the numbers, and you'll find it very educational.

A few examples from my own experience to make you think:

• In California, I pay more in rent and utilities per year than I do for food.  When I lived in Ohio, it was about even.  Thus things like getting a roommate produces a lot of savings.
• Per year, for a decent car loan and car maintenance, you could by an incredibly maxed-out laptop and have cash left over, or two decent laptops.
• One new-release videogame would pay for 4-5 days worth of food if you're frugal, or 2-3 meals at a sit-down restaurant.
• Where I live the cost of 3 decent-sized hardbound books would buy me 2-3 pairs of pants at your average non-fancy department story.
• I found that when I didn't use a car, train/bus fare was more than I'd pay in gas to drive the same distance, but was often faster, and avoided tolls.  In addition if you can do without a car, you can often save thousands of dollars a year in repair, loans, and insurance.
• My average water bill would buy about 3 paperback books, two hardbound books, or one videogame.
• Unlimited text messaging on my cell phone was as cheap as a few meals a month.

Playing around with the numbers really puts things in context.  Give it a try.

- Steve

What Nintendo is Doing Right

Ten years ago, Nintendo was a has-been in the console gaming industry. Sony and its Playstation reigned supreme; the House that Mario Built was being kept afloat mainly by the popularity of the Game Boy and the Pokemon franchise.

Today, Nintendo is the reigning champ of both console and handheld gaming. Want to buy a Wii? Good luck, stores are perpetually sold out of them. If you want Wii Fit, you'll need a double dose of luck, as they fly out of the stores just as fast, if not faster. And then, there's the DS, which shows up in the hands of everyone from children on the playground to commuters on the bus.

How did they get to where they are now? The answer is simple, basic and something anyone wanting to make a splash in any kind of business endeavor should take to heart: They thought outside the perimeters of what a video game system was supposed to be.

In developing the Wii, Nintendo expanded its scope far beyond the traditional "sit on the couch and mash buttons" mode of video gaming. They created something that got you up, moving and involved. And with the software, they cast their net far, far wider than the traditional gaming audience. Sure, there were the Mario games (Super Mario Galaxy has been acclaimed as the best Mario ever) and the Wii versions of popular franchises (Electronic Arts built a special version of Madden for the Wii from the ground floor up).

But Nintendo reached far, far beyond the fanboy gamer to reach his mother, sister and father, too. The most popular title for the Wii by far? Not a button-masher, not a Mario game, not a first-person shooter - it's Wii Fit. This device removes the video game system from its place as mere entertainment and makes it a part of everyday life, practical, useful and healthy – but still very much a "fun" thing (especially if you play its aerobics and balance games).

Nintendo has continued this philosophy with recent offerings for the DS. In addition to Final Fantasy games and the next generation of Pokemon, they've introduced a number of "coach" titles designed to help the user learn another language. And one of their new releases, Personal Trainer Cooking, turns the DS into an interactive cookbook that takes users through recipes step-by-step, with photos and videos to offer assistance. Overseas, there's even a lineup of cyber-books that can be read on the DS.

What Nintendo has done is think outside the box on a grand scale. In coming up with plans for the DS and the Wii, they didn't ask themselves what a video game system was. They asked themselves what a video game system could potentially be, in every aspect of life, and then set out to create that system.

This is why they've survived, even thrived, in a hideous recession. Because they've literally become the company with something for everyone.

When you go to present an idea, think of how you can maximize that idea's potential to its furthest extent. Don't just think outside the box, remove the box entirely.

– Bonnie

Links of the Day, 1/28/2009

Anime/Manga

If you want to get a job at Viz, you're in luck: The company has started an RSS feed for job openings. The company is also expanding, launching an imprint for Japanese sci-fi novels, so they're definitely a good bet to toss a resume to (especially if you know Japanese!)

Video Games

Former Sony chairman Noboyuki Idei has come out with praise for one of the company's main gaming rivals, Nintendo, saying that the company is "getting it right" and may be a boost to the struggling Japanese economy. Given the constant soap-opera infighting in the industry, it's nice to see someone tipping the hat to a competitor - especially when Sony is down and Nintendo is up. Meanwhile, rumors are flying over the possible features of a PSP2, although Sony is, so far, denying its existence.

Nexon, which offers free-to-play MMOs, has closed its Vancouver studio. About 90 people are said to be affected. The company still operates studios in Japan, Europe and North Korea, as well as other places in North America.

The game industry will grow more than 6% and see revenues of $20 billion this year, analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Partners says. That's a slowdown from last year's growth of 19%, but still pretty impressive numbers for this economy.

Rumors of PC gaming's demise may be exaggerated: Microsoft has reaffirmed its commitment  to the format and appointed a new general manager of its Games for Windows division , despite the fact that its Xbox 360 is way overperforming its PC games division.

Apparently, Eidos may be looking to Hollywood to bolster its shaky franchise: Word has it a new Tomb Raider movie is in the works. The recent troubles of Tomb Raider are definitely a reality check to anyone who thinks that if they create a huge-selling game, it'll stay that way forever. 

Technology

The mobile browser wars are heating up: Firefox Mobile is said to be headed for Windows Mobile as early as next week. We can't stress enough that mobile is the up and coming platform for everything cyber - browers, games, productivity apps, you name it - and it's a very fertile area to be specializing in nowadays. (Meanwhile, Acer is the latest computer maker to be entering the "smart phone" fray, saying they will introduce their product on February 16).

More details are emerging about Windows 7 - apparently, it will come in multiple versions, like the much-slammed Vista. Microsoft has an uphill battle on their hands with this one (especially considering the rising marketshare of the Mac and the recent surge of Linux), so if they pull it off, it may stand as a textbook case of how to reverse your fortunes after a really, really bad mistake.

Yahoo's fourth quarter loss was, apparently, not as bad as feared, about 22 cents a share, and its search revenues were up 11 percent. Its stock also surged 59 cents in Tuesday's trading, which begs the question if a renaissance is on the horizon for the company. (Don't sent resumes there just yet, though).

CBS Interactive is among those seeing opportunity in a bad economy: they've launched Moneywatch.com. The site looks like it's worth checking out if you want to track the progress of the ever-woeful economy. 

Social Networking

Rumors are rampant that AOL might be selling Bebo, its social network, although the company has, so far, dismissed it as "ridiculous." The once-mighty online service bought the network for $850 million last year. It's got only 24 million users, quite small compared to its rivals, so this one is probably a "pass" when it comes to resumes.

Comics

There may be a boom in titles aimed at teen girls coming to American graphic novels - Jane Yolen is doing a title for Dark Horse. Teen girls have long driven the American manga market, so this is no surprise - and good news for female artists who don't quite match the manga style. 

Publishing

More bad news from the troubled New York Times, which has, of late, been forced to lease off parts of its new office buildings: Its fourth quarter profits fell by a stunning 47 percent. Given that we're talking the Christmas season here, usually the bellweather of advertising, and that's a big, fat OUCH.  

Ten Papers that Bucked the Trend: A heartening sign that all may not be lost in the publishing world after all, and some newspapers managed to survive despite the odds. 

One way to deal with being laid off on a publication: Go off on your own. The former editor of the Burlington Free Press took losing his job as an opportunity to launch his own weekly.

- Bonnie

Getting your dream job - a chance for overwork at home!

As you've read in these posts I ended up with a kind of geek dream job - Project Management in a game technology company, in my beloved area of middleware. As I work to keep things organized at work - which is my job - a curious thing happened in my personal life. I achieved utter relaxed nirvana.

Of course anyone who knows me or knows people like me realize that I'm lying. I actually got more tense and overorganized.

Links of the Day 1/27/2009

Economics/Geekonomics/Freakonomics

• Consumer Confidence in the US is at the lowest level ever - Totally unsurprising. Note this is only going to keep impacting spending, lending, and other economic activities. Also apparently some people predicted an increase in consumer confidence - the fact that these people have degrees makes me weep.

Publishing

• Can publishing be saved by . . . charging more - The 'Ralph Lauren' effect. As bizarre as this may sounds, this is not the first time I've heard similar sentiments expressed - that there's a sweet spot that some products miss by undercharging. Worth thinking of (and for that matter, think of this model for virtual goods . . . maybe some succeed BECAUSE of the cost?)
• Future's future is a bit ambiguious - I don't find the report profits were ONLY up 1% to be bad in an awful market, but the increase in online revenue interests me - in that the mag porftolio may be a driver to the web, and leveraged right it could make the web more and more profitable.
• Looks like the end of the election reduced visits to newspaper websites - How much did the election skew people's perceptions of websites and their potential in newspapers? How will that affect the seemingly inevitable move online?

Technology

• Kindle 2 is coming
• Ad company AdMob is jumping on the Android bandwagon with a call for developers - Looks like one of Fan To Pro's Crush Objects is moving forward (we're talking Android, by the way). Even if you don't want to work in ads, this could be a real career maker if you want to work in mobile and open source.

Video Games

• Gaming is getting so self referential there's now a game parodying game stereotypes and culture with Eat Lead: The Return of Matt Hazard which is a comeback game for a videogame character who doesn't exist. Essentially, it's the Spinal Tap of videogames. Normally I'd write this off, except the people involved make me hopeful. If this works out, it will be a bit of a milestone as gaming will have achieved a level where a successful title can be all about mocking what came before overtley (unlike, say Shadow Hearts: Covenant which had humor within the game on game mechanics and stereotypes, but the game itself didn't have the purpose of being funny).
• Digital distribution to boom? So says Darren Jobling of Eutechnyx (full interview linked). He makes a lot of good points, so I'd read the whole thing. One thing that stands out for me is the idea that brick-and-mortar stores that AREN'T only gaming are taking hits, and that's more reason for gaming to move to online distribution anyway. I also agree that digital distribution is inevitable.
• A quick look at the issue of videogame monetization
• Synergy, synergy - video game presence up 50% at the New York Comic Con. This surprises me not in the least. Comics, anime, manga, and videogames have a pretty good synergy as I've stated in my previous theories on the Geekonomy, so this is only natural.

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On the subject of conventions and synergy an issue I expect to come up is that conventions themselves will inevitably evolve to be more multimedia. Anime cons have done this for years, mixing in everything from anime to Jpop to video games to computer graphic panels. I expect comics cons will follow suit as they're a given artistic medium, but one with broad implementation in many genres and methods. Multimedia and synergy is going to be the way to go for conventions, especially ones that have a heavy professional bent because that's the way the market is going.

The flipside of this is I suspect conventions that don't move with the times may start to die off in the next five years or scale back. I've seen large conventions slowly rot from not moving forward - and new conventions hit the ground running with all sorts of offerings and multiple media sources (I recently was at a one day con that included video games, a manga library, dealer's room, two panel rooms, a look at anime history, multiple viewing rooms, and a cosplay contest. It was only its second year.)

For professionals, this means realizing the convention scene will change - so if you use it for networking, product announcements, what have you, keep this in mind. Not every convention will be the best place, the ones that aren't may evolve, and you'll need to keep the proper synergies in mind.

For fans, if you're looking for these networking opportunities, the same applies.

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Virtual Worlds

• Heroes character goes Habbo - Sort-of-superhero show Heroes will have a new character living on their virtual site and in Habbo. More synergy - but also one pitched at an older crowd. Thought of the moment - such exercises could draw older, untapped markets into the younger-oriented virtual worlds.  Job idea - see how you can leverage your virtual world experience and interests in marketing and publicity.

And on a final humorous note to all you aspiring and pro artists out there - learn to draw animal legs right and you'll stand out, because a lot of people apparently are bad at it. Don't start me on Draenei.

- Steve

Links of the Day 1/26/2009

Economics:

• Major Layoffs in many major companies.  Yes, depressing news NOW IN ONE PLACE.  There aren't any surprises here, but this is a big attentio ngrabber.
• Want to know who helped screw up the world economy?  Have a handy guide.  Feel free to know who to be angry at - and remember why this happened.

Jobs and tech

• The layoffs at Microsoft (and other companies) may bring up the H-1B issue again.  This is very big for tech jobs because, frankly, its a hot-button issue.  As I'm fully expecting a more protectionist approach to the economy, this is going to be another issue that comes to people's attention.

Movies

• Nigeria is gaining on Bollywood and Hollywood?  Here's somethign I never expected.  I'm not sure this is important, but then again as I didn't think much of Bollywood even five years ago who knows?

Publishing

• Maybe local news aggregation is a good idea - and not a case of potential overload.  An interesting read.

Social Media

• A look at unexpected repercussions of social media.  I was at a recent social media conference and some of this sounds spot on.  Worth reading because social media produces trails and connections people may not think of.  Now if someone makes these more searchable . . .
• Twitter valued at $250 million - Well in theory perhaps.  Not sure if that can turn into anything "real" considering Twitters limits.  I still bet on Twitter getting adsorbed into another company or switching to service.

Technology:

• Despite the economic downturn, there's increased VC investment in Open Source - Which is understandable in a number of ways - and if Open Source provides more and more cheaper alternatives, you can expect that to sell in a challenged economy.  If we haven't emphasized this enough . . . get some Open Source experience.
• Sprint is having job cuts - Is anyone surprised?
• Microsoft is turning its attention back to Mobile Tech - Which makes sense in a growing consumer electronics market.  Considering their success with X-box, I see no reason for them to go further.
• So why has Knol survived the Google cuts? OK you've got me there.  So I wonder why myself.  One theory of mine is that it can be used to tie together applications, but really I have NO idea.
• Netflix does . .  well OK for Q4 - which surprises me somewhat in this market.
• Cisco gets a stake in a video techology firm - My guess is this is part of Cisco expanding into other markets, including consumer electronics.  Video is, as we've seen, very big, and I'm sure they'd want a part of it.

Video Games:

• Videogames outsell DVD and Blu-Ray in 2008 - The market may be erratic, but it's doing well apparently.  This doesn't surprise me - as I've said, it's value for your dollar.  Makes me wonder if DVD companies are paying attention.

Virtual Worlds

• Cartoon Network's FusionFall looks at more social options- And I'm looking to see how this goes in this mountain of media synergy.
• Youth oriented worlds are growing and big - This surprises me not at all.  However there's only so long this can go on - and the youth eventually grow up.  The companies are going to want to capture and maintain interest.  I expect a more adult shift in the future.

Week In Review, 1/25/2009

And what a week it was.  Let's sift through the chaos and see what patterns we can find . . . most of them will involve layoffs unfortunately.

In Anime and Manga, Tokyopop wanted interns, while Bandai entertainment restructured.  Neither of which is particularly promising for job seekers.  Harlequin launched its own manga imprint in Japan, and I expect it to come over here eventually.  However thats just more competition in the market.

In comics, Diamond's changing order standards may push people to more digital comics - if IVerse has anything to say about it.  I consider Harlequin's entry into the manga market, and IVerse to be very interesting - one big company moves to the "phonebook" and one looks for ways to newly distribute content.  Comics has a lot of distribution options - and with people wanting to A) expand markets, and B) deal with distribution issues, I can see many possible permutations: indies teaming up to do "phone books", more digital distribution, big companies consolidating small projects in "phone books," etc.  Watch this space.

YouTubes Click-To-Buy technology resulted in an incredible increase in sales of Monty Python DVDs.  Now THAT is synergy.  I think after this little announcement more and more people will be trying to jump on the bandwagon.  I also admit its a good idea - its convinent and relatively non-invasive.  Makes me wonder what you could do to combine that with, say cell phone text message advertising.

Unfortunately a lot of tech news was semi-dismal.    Sun Microsystems began its layoffs,  Ericson had cuts, Logitech had cuts, and O'Reily made cuts and Digg made cuts and Google had a painful writedown - plus we've all heard stories of Microsoft and IBM  Things are crazy at Sony still, quite likely due to a leadership conflict,  At least wages seem good and growing in tech - if only we can be sure of WHERE the jobs will be.

My guess is we've got another month of bad announcements in technology, with things stable in March.  I expect a wild ride however - and things stangant at least until later 2009 or early 2010 on the hiring front.  Companies will play it close to the chest.

Videogames had their own cuts as well.  Microsofts flight sim studio Internal Aces is closed, Eidos closed its Rockpool Mobile Gaming Studio (I still am betting on Time Warner getting Eidos), EA cut 200 people at Black Box and more jobs at Tiburon while restructuring at Mythic, Trion sees some layoffs and restructuring,  Sega had layoffs, and Jaleco just plain left gaming.  Sony ironically doesn't see any big layoffs in gaming (and is apparently still hiring), which fits my continually touted 'power through the downturn' theory - if anything else who knows who they can outlast.

There was good news in gaming, such as good sales and a few companies raising venture capital (which is still down), but it reflected not so much a bad market, but a case of some players in the market having trouble (read, many people who aren't Nintendo).    I am wondering if, when the market improves, there will be more space for independent players.

In short, not a pleasant week, but admittedly not unexpected.  Hang in there people . . .