iPhone Non-Exclusivity And You

If you follow tech news, you've heard the rumor that Apple is going to end its exclusive deal for the iPhone with AT&T . . . oh, just about every other day. However, it appears that this may be the real thing this time, folks – no less a mainstream news source than CNN is reporting that Apple could begin manufacturing Verizon and Sprint-compatible phones as early as September.

Now, we're not going to jump the gun here and say this is a done deal, but it's looking more certain than not. So, it's probably time to analyze what this is going to mean jobwise to various segments of the geekonomy.


Cell Phone Companies: The effect on AT&T is going to be, in a word, catastrophic. They've suffered user complaints about their service for some time now (just look at the reader comments on that CNN article), and once the iPhone is available on a service that, well, isn't AT&T, expect users to defect en masse.

So, is the iPhone going to be the long-awaited savior of Sprint? Don't bet on it. They've been floundering for a long time now, and while this may give them a small boost, it may be too little, too late. Meanwhile, Verizon, which is already the country's biggest wireless company, looks to get even stronger from this – especially if former customers who left them to get the iPhone come back to the fold.

The bottom line: If your career path is taking you to cellular tech, Verizon looks like the safest of the three companies involved to work for. (Interestingly, there's been no news yet as to where T-Mobile stands with this – however, if they don't get on the iPhone train, consider them derailed).

Smartphone OSs: Before you start sounding the death knell of Android, consider this: A widely available iPhone may cut into the spread of Google's OS – especially in the case of Verizon, where the Droid has been king until now – but it won't dampen it entirely. If the phone companies can come up with efficiently-running Android phones that cost less than the iPhone, it may still appeal to people on a budget, especially younger users, who want the flash without the cost.

The loser here may be Windows Mobile, which is already playing catchup due to a spotty reputation, despite a much-improved new version. It may find that uphill climb even steeper competing against both the iPhone and the Droid at Verizon.

The bottom line: Demand for iPhone apps will get even greater, and Android will still hang in there. Windows Mobile: Not so much.

Tablets: So is a readily available iPhone going to stem the tide of tablets, which were an appealing alternative to people who wanted an iPhone but weren't willing to switch carriers? It may have a small effect, but tablets really are a different thing than the iPhone – they're larger and more powerful (and will be a huge boon to the college market, mark my words).

The device that's probably going to take the hit here is the iPod Touch, otherwise known as the iPhone without the phone. Because why just get the cone when the ice cream is now readily available?

The bottom line: The tablets are coming, the tablets are coming – and they're STILL coming, despite iPhones For All.

This is definitely going to be an interesting time in the smartphone industry. Keep an eye on it, because developments could break from day to day – and once this one breaks for good, and the iPhones start appearing at a variety of cell phone companies, the impact is going to be seismic.

- Bonnie Walling