Kindles, BlackBerries and The Importance Of Thinking Forward

When people go into the tech business, they dream of creating the latest gaget, the thing that's going to end up in everyone's pockets, the device that's going to transform society. Sometimes, these things happen – or, if people don't completely innovate a new product, they improve on an existing one.

But, as two news stories that came up this week pointed out, just because you're on top of the tech heap dosn't mean you're going to stay there forever.


The first case is that of BlackBerry, the device which brought the thumb-typing style of texting into the North  American mainstream. For the longest time, it was thought of as THE business device – suit-and-tie types were never without them, and commuter buses were filled with young executives frantically texting away as they traveled home from work.

Enter the iPhone. Need I say more?

BlackBerry is now finding itself struggling to keep pace in a market it once dominated, competing against phones that feature a wide variety of downloadable productivity apps – an iPhone or Android phone isn't just a business tool, it can be an on-the-road office.

They're releasing phones that they call smartphones now, all right, but at first glance, they look less like the black-slab-with-a-touchscreen that's become associated with the term and more like, well, BlackBerries. Their much-hyped Curve, it seems, fell behind the curve.

The second case is something that everyone, including us, were touting as the Device of the Future last year – E-readers. The Kindle looked poised to conquer the publishing world, with the Nook hot on its heels and a slew of other devices from A-list bookstores and manufacturers waiting in the wings.

And then . . . well, hello there, iPad. What a lovely set of E-reading tools you offer – along with a host of other features. Meanwhile, here's HP jumping into the fray by buying Palm with eyes firmly on the tablet prize, and Adroid tablets about to erupt all over the landscape.

Almost overnight, E-readers began to look like one-trick ponies, yesterday's news. Barnes and Noble and Amazon both cut the prices of their flagship devices, but pundits were already predicting that the devices' future was to be sold as bundle packages along with stacks of E-books.

So what went wrong? In both cases, I think the technology advanced faster and further than these companies were planning. They were innovators, all right, but because they didn't keep constantly innovating, they got beaten at their own game.

There's lessons to be gained here for everyone, not just people who work in the smartphones/tablets/computers business: Always look ahead, not straight up and down. Look for any possible signs of change on the horizon and respond to them immediately. Try to think about what the needs of your customer or audience will be two years from now, not at this moment, and plan ahead to meet those needs.

Resting on your laurels is the last thing you want to do. Once you've earned them, it's time to go out and get more laurels. (Look at Apple, which hasn't stopped moving forward since the first iMacs were introduced and is now the company setting the pace for everyone else).

It's an old story that today's hot gadget is tomorrow's paperweight. (Well, today's hot gadgets may soom make paperweights obsolete, but I digress). In today's market, that's very true. But keep thinking forward, and you'll never be a paperweight – just on top of the pile.

- Bonnie Walling