Tamara’s Predictions for 2012

Most of my predictions for the future are long-term.  This means going beyond 2012, but over the next few years I expect:

- Greater austerity measures in the US.  Now that the war's over, they'll be tallying up the cost and it might be a wake-up call that money's not free.  This will be bad in the short term, because it's the people who will be bearing the brunt of the cutbacks, but in the long run it might help if it gets those in power to take money seriously.

- Canada will also be affected by spending cuts.  This isn't really due to anything other than the fact that we have a Conservative majority, and that we often use the US economy as a gauge as to what we can get away with.

- Europe will get itself out of debt, but only if they localize their economies.  Governments like those in Italy and Greece got away with racking up debt for so long because there was no one in their face holding them accountable.  Now that the debt situation is out in the open, there is more of a push to manage it properly.  The worst thing they can do is devalue the Euro.  The best thing they can do is stabalize each region, one tiny bit at a time.

-Something I've kind of been waiting for: Eventually, we will reach a point where we as consumers can't go cheap anymore.  I was hoping it would happen back in 2008, when the recession first started and when there was that wave of reports about poor quality and hazardous materials being used in many Chinese imports.  It's a vicious cycle: the less disposable income we have here, the more likely we're shopping at Wal-Mart and dollar stores instead of buying the good stuff (if and when good stuff is actually available).  However, if it gets to the point where buying cheap stuff turns out to be a waste of money because the stuff doesn't work or is dangerous, then we'll buy local products again.  This is better for our economy because it will demonstrate a demand for domestically-made products, thus prompting support of local companies.  Not to mention, it's better for the environment because there's less transportation required.

 

Okay, now for some things that I think will actually happen in 2012.

-RIM is done for.

-"Audience sourcing" will make new strides as reality TV continues and independent webseries are picked up by traditional broadcasters hungry for ready-made content.

-Mobile TV may surpass traditional TV sets.

-Gaming companies may take notice of a few untapped markets: couples, seniors, and businesspeople.  What do I mean by "businesspeople"?  I mean since many business currently use incentive programs (such as "any rep who sells twenty subscriptions this month get a bonus"), why not take gamification a step further and actually use software to facilitate it?  Gaming companies will be general software companies, in a sense.

-And finally, Fan To Pro will become world famous as the number one community and resource for progeeky information.  Sure, why not?

-Tamara Hecht

  • http://profile.typepad.com/genjipress Serdar (Genji Press)

    Most of the austerity measures on the table are well-meaning but deeply misguided. Paul Krugman of the NY Times has been writing about this for some time now — he’s shown how many of the problems in Europe right now weren’t caused by debt, and aren’t going to be fixed by the sort of fiscal austerity that’s most commonly proposed as a cure-all for such things. The wealthy need to pay more of their share, and there also need to be more incentives to create real wealth instead of finding cleverer ways to create synthetic money and game the system for short-term gain. But right now I don’t see anyone talking seriously about such things; it’s all pixie dust and bogeymen.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/tamara126 Tamara Hecht

    You know, I came REALLY close to saying that Europe only became, you know, Europe, because it grew for hundreds of years as a series of tiny, localized economies that were self-sustaining and traded amongst each other. I left that out because it was too risky to hold it up as a model example, what with all the war and feudalism and slavery and so on. Still, when you say something is “European” (or specific to a European country), that means something. It says it’s classy, modern, well-developed, and trustworthy. I want to live in a world that makes stuff that way. I want something I created to be known as classy and trustworthy. The point is, if you want to make something good (be it a product or a reputation), there is no cheap shortcut. Taking cheap shortcuts is what tanked the economy.