Fan To Pro - The Blog of Professional Geekery

Economic News Roundup 2/3/2011

Oh what a lot of juicy economic news we have.

The latest NFP report on employment is surprisingly good.

A NY Lawsuit over MERS could get very complicated and may push some of the banking issues into/back into public conciousness.  Read the whole thing.  I'm still waiting for MERS issues to explode, and despite conflicting policies on the state and federal level, something's going to give.

Layoffs may be coming at Microsoft.  Rumor stage, but worth watching (and a thought - if it is coming this is a good time to do it and hope for not too much press).  Do I see it as a real deal?  I can't say either way, but the area of layoffs make sense.

MUST READ: A look at unemployment that answers the big questions people have.  Just go take a look and analyze (for instance, education affects your chance to be unemployed, but not the duration).

- Steven Savage

Economic Misery News!

Well time for me to be bearer of bad economic tidings again.  So here's what's in the headlines today.

Kodak stock falls on rumors of bankrupcy.  It sounds like they don't need rumors - the company seems to be in trouble and is trying to stay afloat selling assets.

Takeaways:

• They don't sound long for this world, frankly - so if you're there, consider getting out.
• If they do go bankrupt/out of business, it'll have some impact psychologically, but frankly no one will be that surprised.
• If they get bought out/broken up there may be some opportuities.

American Economic Mobility is kinda bad.  This is not news to anyone who's been paying attention, but the fact it's getting this much discussion is important - and this article takes a look at some fine details that take it out of the "oh, yeah" class of writing.  Lots to chew on here, and a few surprises (I wasn't aware of some of the family demographic details, for instance).

- Steven Savage

 

News from the North - Jan 3

A bit of backlog after being offline for a couple of days.

Social Networking to Meet Customer Service
A Halifax, Nova Scotia, company is working on software that will allow two people online to surf together, as if they were sitting together instead of on opposite coasts, without the need for plugins. Co-found and CEO Jevon MacDonald already reports having some of the bigger websites interested. Halifax geeks, you know where to send resumes.

More Trends for 2012
Covers some of what others here at FanToPro have mentioned, though ITBusiness.ca differs on RIM's future (they'll survive through 2012). Not on FanToPro's radar was the development of Ultrabooks, lightweight laptops with extended battery life. Toshiba, LG, HP, and Lenovo have been working on ultrabooks. HP has already released the Folio, a $900 ultrabook with a nine-hour battery life claim. Intel is assisting companies designing ultrabooks by investing $300 million into them. If the companies can get the price down to tablet levels or lower (and keep in mind that a netbook can run about $250 before taxes, lower than an iPad), ultrabooks may give tablets a run.

Apple Lead Designer Knighted
Jonathan Ive has been made a Knight Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire for his work at Apple, including introducing coloured Macs and the clean designs of the iPod and iPhone. For geeks in the Commonwealth, being good at something may mean getting recognized from on high.

Why the Occupy Movement Exists
The gap between CEOs and workers continues to grow. Making 189 times what the average worker does, CEOs have made their employees' salary by noon on January 3. And this is just in Canada.

McAfee's Top Threats for 2012
McAfee Labs have released their top five security threats. Among them, hacking attacks on both mobile devices and embedded hardware and "legal" spam. Security geeks will have a lot of work in the new year.

RIM Shakeup?
RIM may wind up having a new chair, replacing founders Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie. The move, if it happens, comes from pressure from shareholders to reform the management structure. Something to keep an eye on, if people aren't watching RIM already.

Texting Injuries
As texting becomes more popular, the risk of repetitive strain injuries grows. Most of the injuries occur to the thumb because of how it is used when typing on a smartphone or even a regular old cellphone (do they exist anymore?). The first people to come up with an improved interface will win the hearts of many people with sore thumbs.

iPassport Gets Man Across iBorder
A Montreal man used a scan of his passport on his iPad to get into the US. He had forgotten his actual passport on a day while going to Vermont to visit friends. He was allowed through. The problem? A scanned passport is not a secure document. However, if an electronic passport can be created that prevented the obvious security issues, they could become popular.

--Scott D

Tamara's Predictions for 2012

Most of my predictions for the future are long-term.  This means going beyond 2012, but over the next few years I expect:

- Greater austerity measures in the US.  Now that the war's over, they'll be tallying up the cost and it might be a wake-up call that money's not free.  This will be bad in the short term, because it's the people who will be bearing the brunt of the cutbacks, but in the long run it might help if it gets those in power to take money seriously.

Harper's Article on "Stopping Payment" on Homes and More

Worth Reading: Harpers look at movements to take on banks over MERS and stop payments on loans. It's hefty reading, so it may only be for the dedicated, but I'd take a gander.

Essentially between the MERS mess people can take on the banks, it's got a bit of a movement behind it. This is reminiscent of other movements dealing with financial law, and might just combine with similar movements (anti-tax, state sovereignty, local control, etc.). It also has potential to combine with Occupy Wall Street.

It also means that the anger with the housing mess has a chance to mutate into something else, and banks have to keep up  . . . which they're not to good at.

- Steven Savage

News from the North - Dec 27

Well, not much today, but there are several aspects to the one story worth reporting.

Christmas Shopping Up and Down

Through the Christmas shopping season, I was seeing apparently conflicting stories about the amount of sales.  Online sales were up, way up.  Meanwhile, malls were seeing fewer people coming through their doors.  The economy was causing problems for many people.  Wages were stagnant, necessitating cost-cutting measures.  Apparently, online shopping allowed people to save on the cost of gas and avoid (non-existant) crowds.  This ties into Steve's post on the closing of Sears and K-Mart stores.  Online shopping is starting to look far more attractive to people for shopping.  Start early enough and the gifts can arrive long before the holidays.

Anecdotally, I delayed my Christmas shopping until the week before and was dreading hitting the malls.  However, the large mall I went to was sparse.  I'd seen larger there on regular weekends.  At the same time, the mall closest to me was busier, but had the advantage of being walking distance from several apartment buildings and seniors residences; but, it, too, wasn't super busy.  However, I didn't go into any mall on the 24th.  I'm crazy, not stupid.  Meanwhile, my sister did most of her shopping online, finding things that can't normally be found locally without great effort.

It looks like the future of retail involves online stores with some hyper specialized stores for items that either can't be shipped safely or are impulse buys.  The U.S. has seen one large bookstore chain fold already.  Up in the Great White (finally!) North, our major bookstore chain has jumped readily into online retail.  Chains not able to follow might not last past the next two years.

--Scott D

Eco/Geekonomics - Sears and Kmart stores to close

Not a happy holiday season apparently.

I had been hearing about trouble at Sears, but not the Kmart part of Sears Holdings.  There's a hefty amount of stores closing, about 100-120.  I'm sure the lousy economy is an obvious part of it - as is the move to online (and man, judging by the scene out here during shopping time, online is a good bet).

They're also not alone - Wal-Mart is hurting.  They just have presence, gobs of cash, and stranglehold on their side.

So why is this here, in our Sanctum Geektorum?  Because this is big news:

• Those quick retail jobs people rely on for cash are going to be affected by lack of opportunity.
• If there is more of a move online that may change opportunities - and bring some for you.  As I've noted many times I still think Wal-Mart is going to try and build an online presence.
• Amazon is more likely to be further in the crosshairs after this because, well, e-commerce and such.  This is going to further negative attention on Amazon - though it may result in a can't-beat-em-join-em approach.
• These closings could affect communities severely depending on where they are.  It may affecy yours.
• It's a reminder many brands are not "sacred" in this economy.  Your name will not necessarily save you today.

- Steven Savage

Economic Headdesk Time: Home Sales Worse Than Thought

OK I've gone on about the housing market.  And on, and on.  Yeah, it may not seem very Geeky, but that's a major part of our economic woes the last few years, and a prime study in Industrial Grade Stupid and Wrong.

Well the Stupid was not Industrial Grade, it was even higher Quality: The National Association of Realtors was overcounting home sales.  For five years.

End result?  The housing market, already bad, is worse than we thought.  Oh, and it probably puts other statistics into question.

Your takeaways:

• A lot of people can't do statistics, apparently including some people whose job it is.
• The housing market is worse than thought - I'll reiterate my previous claims, I think a recovery may be a decade away.  By then so much will have changed we may not even know it's one.
• I think this may actually be an honest mistake (that no one was anxious to check for mistakes).
• This will probably not get a lot of notice.  Unfortunately.
• On pure progeekery, I think there's a market for good, real data out there since we've seen so many cases of it being done wrong.  Think about that.

- Steven Savage

Bad Statistics For Fun

This is a glorious infographic on misuse of correlation that you just have to see to appreciate.

Keep this one in stock to use whenever someone makes some insane pronouncement based on bad statistics. And stop naming kids Ava, it's destroying the housing market.

- Steven Savage

Norway Butter Crisis

OK normally I post serious geeky economic news, bordering on the depressing, but as your geekonomist du blog, I have to share this story that is a great reminder of how social trends affect economics.

Norway is running out of butter.

Why? Because of a low-carb diet trend and some bad weather. Oh and they could get more butter from Denmark, but Denmark apparently isn't selling because of high import duties.

So next time you see some weird or odd trend or fad, pause for a moment, don't laugh, and ask yourself just what it's real-life economic impacts may be. The iPad may be cool, Skyrim may be awesome, but there's also a trend effect there.

Also, Norway Butter Crisis is an awesome name for a band or an MMO guild.

- Steven Savage