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Steve's Kill Your Cable Adventure #5: Finding The Off Switch

Been awhile since I posted one of these columns, though at least you know I haven't been busy watching cable.

Essentially in the month since the last column, no one in my home has watched cable.  In fact, only recently did we go "hey, wait, we should cancel this."

The shift happened that quickly.

So now this week I've got to go get rid of Cable and TiVO.  Both have their own challenges, but it's also going to mean about $80 or so we don't spend a month.  So, yeah, if you've got a deluxe cable package, you're spending more, and that adds up.

Getting away from cable, after a short time, was pretty easy:

• Hulu and Netflix of course made it easier to get old and new shows.
• Some companies put their shows online anyway (though I expect there's some odd battles coming).
• There are companies that put specific content online, such as anime.
• If you really want it, get the DVD from Netflix, or buy one, or buy one and sell it to a  used media store. 

So pretty much if I want television of some kind, I can probably get it.  In other words, yes, you don't need cable.  Also you probably have Netflix anyway.

I also noticed definite psychological shifts:

• We all know a lot of television is crap.  When you're not watching it, the crap becomes more, painfully, apparent.
• Having cable is like having a ticket to a buffer of mediocrity.  You'll use it because it's there, but in actuality, you're not getting much out of it.
• Having to decide on my entertainment and video viewing as opposed to flipping on the TV has gotten me exploring a wider variety of content.  Cable, in some ways, is also limiting.
• My interest in different media extended to other areas of my life - such as webcomics.
• I feel even more social.  Television doesn't become a tool of socialization so much as a tool for shared experiences.

The shift in mindset is still something I'm analyzing, and there will doubtlessly be more analysis to come.  In the end I came to the following conclusions:

• You probably don't need cable and it might be good to get away from it.
• It's easy to get away from it.
• Cable companies are going to need to change radically to deal with the changes in the world - and I think they could, but I'm not sure they will (essentially becoming "internet providers plus").  Hint - potential career opportunity.

So probably one more column to come on how I turned it all off . . . then silence.

Followed by me watching Netflix.

- Steven Savage

 

Netflix Expands Into the UK and Ireland - and More

Netflix streaming-only service in the UK and Irelandcheaper introductory streaming package that also has extra features. They're also not the only potential competitor.

Netflix both has to do this - and faces the hard truth that they'll loose money in 2012. They are trying to raise more capital, but also have to keep making changes to stay valid and head off competitors.

More insight is provided by Reed Hastings, who among other insights states pretty obviously his goal is to expand overseas.

Let's face it - Netflix is the default. It's even a good default, but the default nonetheless - and some bad choices (like Qikster) and a changing market have shown they're not as stable as people may think - including me.

But what happens with Netflix is going to have a lot of impact. Following Netflix is important because:

• They (or those who replace them) will affect video distribution. I've been concerned what Big Streaming means for the little guy who does video. Maybe competition means the little guy gets a break - and consolidation means he gets crushed.
• Amazon keeps expanding - and this is one area they're not dominant in. A failure of Netflix could mean a surge for Amazon - and the inevitable confrontation with Amazon as a kind of mega-power of business (think Wal-Mart but without people hating them as much). On the other hand, Netflix could be a bulwark against Amazon . . . and one people may eventually support financially and politically because of that only.
• Netflix is seen as vulnerable, so people are moving into their territory - but to think they're all going to succeed is ignorant. Some bright new startups and competitors are doubtlessly going to fail - so pay attention if you work in those areas.
• Career-wise, I think Netflix is still a safe bet for the next year or two. Then it'll be more solidified - or further in trouble. My big worry would be sudden reorganization.
• Netflix currently does not employ local staff in it's UK and Ireland outreaches - but I'm sure that will change (and change in other countries). Might be an opportunity there.

This? One step in a much more complex game.

- Steven Savage

Steve's Kill Your Cable Adventure #4: Into The Abyss

Last week was a convenient way to practice Kill Your Cable - my roommate was out for a trip.  So I decided to go Cold Turducken and not watch anything on cable - just via other sources.

Here's what I found:

• Hulu has ads, and that annoys me, but when you think about it you get a half-decent selection for a low price.  Being ad-free should not be a measure of something's value, it's more per-dollars.  I get used to it - but I'd pony up a little more for no ads.
• Netflix still has an amazing selection of items.
• The XBox really is evolving nicely as a media machine - I like what it can do and I think the latest update shows Microsoft is finding it's niche.  As they have a good gaming box and PC gaming is big, I figure it's entertainment.
• Any browser hooked to a TV is valuable - because a TV really is a giant honking monitor.  Don't deny the possibility of using it to run shows off of a computer normally not used for the process.
• The update to the Logitech Revue, which includes apps, is a nice start.  It's got a ways to go, but I think a big advantage of potential Killboxes for Cable is their updatability.
• The act of having to search for things to watch actually opens up your horizons to other shows, properties, etc.
• I missed Glee and realized I didn't miss Glee.  Still want a show with Kurt, Blaine, and Puck living together.  That's just me. 

Apple TV: Not Quite An Assault, But . . .

Apple TV itself was a bit of a curiosity - at $99 it was an easy-to-purchase curiosity. But it didn't exactly overwhelm the critics.

Well Apple hasn't given up on TV.  Here's a roundup of Apple's upcoming plans, courtesy of the WSJ. There are some skeptics to say the least.

An Apple venture into TV full force would mean economic, cultural, and employment shifts, so of course I'm curious. There's also breathless speculation about how Steve Jobs somehow "finally cracked" the TV problem before his death. Considering the potential impact, progeeks like ourselves need to keep up on this.

However I find myself pretty much in agreement with Philip Elmer-DeWitt. Apple's products are evolutions, so there is nothing new and radical - we'll see an evolution of what's already out there.

I'd actually add I think this is one reason for Apple's success - they deliberately evolve and build on technology where many others start from scratch or throw some new code around the old and declare it done.

Elmer-DeWitt does a pretty good job of summing up the basic idea - the new Apple TV will be the old Apple TV evolved, but I'd add my own thoughts - and their impacts.

• Apple will do something with TV. They've had their first venture and they can't avoid it. Apple TV: The Sequel is coming.
• I agree Apple will build on Apple TV, since it's what they do. If you're a developer who wants to work with or on Apple technology in video, study up on it now.
• Cross-platform integration will be a big feature of theirs, and a big selling point. No one else has this level of potential integration yet - but they'll want to build it. You could help.
• Apple will rely on brand loyalty and reputation to sell this. That could mean that quality issues may not be the biggest factor affecting sales, which would mean predicting the market is harder.
• Apple can't fail at this - really just not succeed too well. This gives them leeway, and they may play long game here. They may leave it to others to fail, not to themselves to succeed.
• It's clear that the future of television is going to be different and unusual controls. I think it's clear that Apple already is focusing on voice commands. The media box battle of the near future will be Neo-Kinect versus Neo-Siri. Microsoft's hackable Kinect was a field day for them, making it popular and helping people learn, An advantage Apple does not have and is unlikely to cultivate.
• Video is so clearly the future battleground, we can expect all sorts of nasty legal battles. You can be sure all sides in this are already prepping legal teams, and what happens here could have legal impact for years if not decades.
• How non-big name distribution works in our video future will be important to the efforts of people not affiliated with big (or medium) studios. You need to follow this very carefully if that's you. It's also possible that someone (possibly Google) will see the long-tail potential in the smaller producers and take advantage of that, using small-scale creators as an edge.
• Timeframe for the next Apple TV? I expect an iteration before next Christmas.
• I figure Apple is already working on this, so I'm not sure how many employment opportunities it will bring, but I suspect there could be an increase after the next iteration.
• I think it'll be likely that the future App TV will carry apps, which would be an opportunity for developers, depending on the restrictions.

- Steven Savage

Steve's Kill Your Cable Adventure #3: Oh, wait

For you new readers, and apparently we've gotten a few, I've been engaged in an effort to get away from cable.  I'm not sure I need it, and frankly as this seems to be the future, I figure experiencing it will give me something to share with progeeks - and help me understand what's going on.

We've hit a few snags in our Kill Your Cable Adventure:

• Diversity of systems.  I know that's a given, but seriously did Netflix have to take Sengoku Basra away for while - so now I can only see it on Hulu on the web?  It seems like you need 2-3 other television alternatives to get what you want.
• Wait, that's not available.  We're actually waiting for a season of a show that we can't find anywhere to end.  That may sound ridiculous, but hey, you get used to things - and discuss them with friends.
• What's on what?  In the end it appears that the XBox is going to be our Killbox.  I wouldn't have thought that.  I may change my mind in a few months.
• Ads when I pay?  Look, Hulu is underrated, it's quite good, but why am I paying for ads?

So we're still on track to do it, but feeling it out is a bit more difficult than expected.  Then again it's live and learn - and my big lesson here is to examine carefully and have everyone in the household look at the impact.

It's on its way, but man is it a weird ride.

Now some further observations:

• Cable is almost a complete waste if you're single.  The fees ($30-$100 a month depending on what you want) just don't add up with all of the online elements available.
• Cable may actually be financially viable in a house of 3 or more people with diverse tastes.  This will change over time. 
• DVR services are less and less needed in an age of all these services.  Once we Kill Cable, we're not going to need TiVO.
• A lot of services people would have without cable anyway (Netflix or Crunchyroll a prime example).  So oddly, you may have what you need to Kill Your Cable anyway and not know it.
• Hulu in no way should be having problems.  It's a nice system, it works pretty good, there's a decent selection that could be expanded.  It's issues are a lack of follow-through (oh, and greed).
• Netflix really shafted itself with it's changes.  As I investigate Kill Your Cable options, Netflix was riding high - but has enough competition and there are enough social changes that they shouldn't have messed with a winning formula.
• The last writer's strike, stupid reality TV, and other blunders and idiocies have made Kill Your Cable MUCH easier.

The final factor I want to share is the psychological shift I'm experiencing leaving Cable behind.

It's been basically a week and a half since we started this experiment in my house.  I've avoided turning on cable for background noise, tried to watch things online only (with some exceptions as noted), and in short tried to stay away from cable.

I'm starting to ask myself what the big deal is.

Television, as stated previously, is a habit.  Now that I've decided to step away (which was surprisingly easy) it seems kind of useless, a ritual that has lost meaning, a leftover of family nights in front of the television.  What is the point of this habit?

There really isn't one except some vague social rituals of watching shows within a similar timeframe.

Oh I still watch things - things I want to watch, or share with friends.  But this conscious move has made my other viewing habits more conscious.  I am more purposeful with my selections.

If anything I can recommend the Kill Your Cable exercise because it makes you think.

People have options for their video consumption.  This means they have to think and make choices - and it makes them start asking what's going on, why they do these things, what matters.

It gets complicated - especially for those of us working with media and technology.

- Steven Savage

Verizon to take on Netflix

The Gauntlet has been thrown: Verizon is building a Netflix competitor.

OK I'm skeptical - at this rate the competition is ramping up - but it sounds like they've got a focused plan (movies and kids' shows) and remember they've also got a presence on the new XBox.  So it's not unreasonable - and like Game Stores, it seems we're oddly at a place where people would rather launch a redundant service than miss out.

Takeaways:

• Netflix is vulnerable, and I think their response will actually be internationalization.
• OnLive is somewhere in all of this mess, with giant streaming system NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT.
• Verizon has a big "captive audience" they can leverage (and more with XBox).
• Verizon is going to have to hire/employ people to do this - which may mean jobs.  If others jump in on this, more jobs.
• People are still talking big, not small content.  I'm concerned smaller producers may get squeezed out.

(Oh and side note to Netflix CEO Hastings - do not compare yourself to Bank of America.  Man, I'm starting to feel my faith in Netflix is misplaced - but not enough to suggest you look elsewhere for work.)

- Steven Savage

Gree Has New Social Game Platform

OK gamers, Gree's got a new social game developer platform coming and there's a look at it now.

They're promising:

• Access to their current amount of players (A sweet 150 million)
• iOS and Android integration
• A ton of tools

So sounds interesting for gamers, you're going to want to watch this (and I'm wondering if their iOS integration will cover all Mac devices eventually). It might be something you have to know.

I'd also note that Gree is locked in an increasingly bitter rivalry with DeNA, and this may be one of may ways they take them on (or out).  Hmm, and where are some of the others in all of this . . .

- Steven Savage

Launch or Be Lunch, Day 9 - Crunchtime Continues: Rendering

Okay, can I let you in on a little secret?  Neither Ayne nor I know how to do technical illustration.  What that means is either she or I are trying to draw a helicopter, it tends to look less like a fully armed Apache helicopter and more like a bulbous sausage with a plate above it and snow skis below.  That's not saying that I don't know how to draw, nor does that say anything about Ayne's skills (especially since she's the artist).  What it means is that our skills lie far more in figure drawing, curves vs. lines (or what we here at Megami tend to refer to as "organic" drawing vice the technical "inorganic" drawing).

Okay, now that I've gotten that off my chest, are you ready for the rest?  Neither can anyone else.

Launch or Be Lunch, Day 13, - Realism vs. Reality vs. Realization vs. Real Estate? (Quick, Come Up With Another Word!)

As we discussed yesterday, research is the key to getting everything right - or at least plausible - in your works.  But in all that, there's a question that should really be asked.

Why?

Or rather, does everything need to be true and accurate in all details?  Yes, it helps to know that the point end of the sword is not the part that you hold, and that the moon is not made of green cheese.  But what it if was?  What if ol' Luna were composed of Swiss? (sorry, couldn't come up with a gouda enough variety).  What if there was air in space?  What if we just threw the book out?

And, of course, it goes without saying that some things just don't mesh well in a realistic setting.

Late Breaking Geekery: Netflix Rage

Thanks to our regular Rob, for the news about People Being Unhappy at Netflix over their prices.

I'm still figuring Netflix' strategy, and from what I can figure:

• They want to focus on streaming.
• They will probably phase out DVDs in the next five years (which is expensive)
• They are making some radical change now at the top of their game as opposed to when it can hurt them more.
• People won't quit as much as the threaten.

So your takes?

- Steven Savage